UKIP CHOKES AT STOKE: TORIES HELP LABOUR TO WIN

Paul Nuttall: this guy spills way too much salt to be a leader.

Bad news! Civic nationalist, vaguely anti-immigration party UKIP failed to win the Stoke by-election. Here are the full results:
  • Gareth Snell (Lab) 7,853 (37.09%, -2.22%)
  • Paul Nuttall (Ukip) 5,233 (24.72%, +2.07%)
  • Jack Brereton (C) 5,154 (24.35%, +1.80%)
  • Zulfiqar Ali (LD) 2,083 (9.84%, +5.67%)
  • Adam Colclough (Green) 294 (1.39%, -2.22%)
  • Barbara Fielding (Ind) 137 (0.65%)
  • The Incredible Flying Brick (Loony) 127 (0.60%)
  • David Furness (BNP) 124 (0.59%)
  • Godfrey Davies (CPA) 109 (0.51%)
  • Mohammed Akram (Ind) 56 (0.26%)

We are especially disappointed because we tipped UKIP to win here several weeks ago and spark off a collapse in the Labour Party, so clearly something went wrong. The first odd thing is how low voter turnout was.

UKIP's Paul Nuttall clearly put in a bad performance, being caught lying on his website that he had lost “close friends” at the 1989 Hillsborough soccer stadium disaster, and then literally crying about it. But this need not have sunk his election campaign as big blubbery man tears over football tragedies are a vote winner with some sections of the degenerate UK electorate. 

What is more noticeable is that the Conservative vote held up surprisingly strongly in third place, so much so that they almost came second. This effectively split a very strong anti-Labour vote (49%), which should have combined to crush Labour (37%). In another by-election held the same night, UKIP voters combined with Conservative voters to help the Tory candidate defeat Labour.

As the Conservatives knew they had no chance of winning this Northern working-class seat, it obviously looks like they took a decision to pour resources and manpower into the seat in order to depress the UKIP vote and help the Labour Party win. Another part of the high Conservative vote could be because Labour dirty tricks smearing UKIP as "racists" may have made a lot of older Conservative voters wary of supporting UKIP, the only Party capable of defeating Labour in this seat. 

But why would the Conservatives even want to help Labour in this way? 

There are two possible reasons. A defeat for Labour in Stoke would have renewed calls for Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn to step down. Many in the Conservative Party want Corbyn to remain as they realise that he would have no chance of beating Prime Minister Theresa May in a general election. 

But actually Corbyn is probably the best that Labour can hope for given their poor pool of leadership talent and the voting tendencies of the Party members. If Corbyn were ousted the chances are Labour members would choose someone even less electable.

Another possible reason for the Conservatives helping Labour is to stop its collapse, as that would open up the way for either the Lib Dems or UKIP to become the main opposition party. Both parties are better positioned in that case to contest the centre ground and take votes away from the Conservatives, especially UKIP, which is also popular with many Conservative voters. 

Footnote:
Barbara Fielding, the Independent anti-immigrant candidate we mentioned in another story did better than the now discredited BNP (see figures above)
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